Don't Play the Rate Game!

Don't playt he rate game, here's why! The chart to the right shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield for October 8th, 2008. The Yield shot up to 3.72%, up 21 basis point from the previous day!

How could this be possible? Didn't the Fed announce that they were dropping the Fed Funds rate by 0.50% today? Didn't that reporter just say that rates were lower and this was being done to heat up the economy?

Now everyone is demanding a lower rate! After all the Fed just lowered the rates and everyone should expect their rate will be lowered too! Correct?

But hold on just a minute. That's no really how it works. You see the Fed Funds rate controls short-term lending. This would be the rates tied to your car loans, furniture and appliance purchases and credit card rates. If you want a lower rate on something, call that credit card company and demand a lower rate from them.

Mortgage professionals deal in long-term rates. These rates are set in the MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) market and they closely follow the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Bond. (see the chart above) As you can see the yield on this bond jumped drastically. A 20+ basis point jump is unheard of in a market that thinks a 5 basis point swing is volatile.

In layman's terms, this means that the interest rates on long-term debt is increasing today, not decreasing. Let me try to simplify why this is.....

When people buy bonds they are seeking two things; safety and income. When the Fed lowers the interest rate on short-term debt they are trying to stimulate the economy. Essentially there ain't enough consumin' goin' on and they are trying to get the party started .....to coin a line from an old 90's club tune.... let's get this party start right! let's get this party started quickly! RIGHT!

When the econ heats up you get inflation. Inflation eats away at the value and the income of fixed assets like bonds. So investors sell the bonds rapidly because they are better off putting their money under the mattress than having it in stocks or bonds at the moment.

So as these bonds get sold off rapidly the laws of supply and demand come into play. There is an abundant supply of bonds for sale but a lack of buyers. This causes the price of the bonds to decline rapidly. As the price declines the yield increases. Since long-term interest rates are tied to bond yields, BAM, long-term interest rise.

So for the time being rates on long-term debt will rise or in a best case scenario, the will remain unchanged. If the economy continues to deteriorate we may see interest rates ease. The bottom line is that you should lock in gains now. If you feel that the rate you have chosen on your long-term debt is good then lock it down and close the loan.

In this credit crisis it is to risky to play the 'rate watch' game. Make a solid decision about what is right for you, your family and your business and lock it in. Then spend the next couple of years doing all that you can do to eliminate the debt as quickly as possible.

And then let's pray that whoever is the next President of our great nation understands how to get our economy moving again.

Michael Gross is the President of Dividend America Mortgage and has been in real estate for over 20 years. He has been a builder, a Realtor, an appraiser, and currently he is a lender and an active real estate investor. He uses all of his experience and knowledge to show individuals how to properly use a mortgage as a tool to help create greater wealth through real estate investing. For more information on residential and small commercial loans please call 770-350-7373 or email mgross@dividendamerica.com